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European ↔ Asian

How to use

What it does
A 1X2 market and an Asian market describe the same match in two languages. This translates between them: give it three 1X2 prices and it prices every handicap, total, handicap 1X2 and scoreline; give it a handicap and a total and it gives you the 1X2 back.

How
Strip the margin out to get true probabilities, solve for each side’s expected goals, and every scoreline’s probability follows. After that any market is just a sum over the right cells.

Example: 2.10 / 3.40 / 3.75 (3.70% margin) → home 45.9%, draw 28.4%, away 25.7% → expected goals 1.30 / 0.90. From that: level ball pays 1.56 on the home side, −0.5 pays 2.18, +0.5 pays 1.35, and 2.5 goals is 2.65 / 1.60. The most balanced line is −0.25 (1.87 / 2.15) — that is where this 1X2 sits on the Asian scale.

The other way: a handicap alone fixes supremacy, a total alone fixes goals; you need both to recover the 1X2, which is why that direction asks for two markets.

Comparing against a real board
What comes out here is fair — no margin in it — while a board quotes prices with the margin already baked in, so comparing them directly is off by the whole margin. Put both on the same footing first: type the pair you can see into Market on the handicap or totals table, the payout is read back off it, and the whole table follows. One line is enough for all of them, because an operator runs the same payout across its board. 0.93 and 1.93 are the same quote and both are understood. (Handicap 1X2 needs nothing typed: it is the same operator’s other market, so it carries the margin of the prices you entered at the top.)

The two colours
Amber is the line where the two sides come closest to level — where an operator usually sets its board. Blue is the line you named under Market. How far apart they sit is the thing to look at; when they are the same line, the amber row gains a blue underline.

Pivot
That column is the one scoreline a line can land on. A whole line hands the stake back, a quarter line hands back half of it and settles the rest, and a half line has no such scoreline at all — it wins or it loses.

On the margin
It is removed proportionally — the same fraction off every price. That is the transparent choice, not the most accurate one: it leaves favourites slightly dear and long shots slightly cheap. Modelling that skew properly needs a fitted parameter, and a converter that quietly fits one is no longer just converting.

1X2 odds
Home
Draw
Away
Enter the three 1X2 prices.
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