Match data

Value betting model

Wanderers

2026/07/11 21:00

2:0

Progreso

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Match Preview: Wanderers vs Progreso (Data-Driven Analysis)

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Match overview

Matches played

Table position

Home/away W

Home/away D

Home/away L

1.37

PPG

0.68

Last 6 PPG

1.6

Home/away PPG

0.89

2.81

xG overall

2.62

2.75

Home/away xG overall

2.58

1.39

xG for per game

1.16

1.42

xG against per game

1.46

1.31

Home/away xG for per game

1.11

1.44

Home/away xG against per game

1.47

Last X

Home wins

(40%)

Draws

(20%)

Away wins

(40%)

2026/04/18

2:1

2025/09/21

2:0

2025/03/27

1:1

2024/11/10

0:0

2024/07/14

4:2

2024/05/04

2:0

League table

Group 1

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	PPG^Δ6	oPPG	xG^Δ	xGA^Δ
1	Peñarol	4	3	0	1	5	2	10	9	2.17^0.28	0.61	33.24^-28.24	22.49^20.49
2	Cerro Largo	4	2	1	1	5	1	1	7	1.67^0.41	0.65	23.77^-18.77	29.08^28.08
3	Central Español	4	2	1	1	4	3	2	7	1.67^0.04	0.63	23.34^-19.34	33.63^30.63
4	Racing	4	1	3	0	2	1	10	6	1.17^-0.78	0.61	31.14^-29.14	20.56^19.56
5	Liverpool FC Montevideo	4	1	2	1	2	2	2	5	1.33^0.01	0.65	26.13^-24.13	25.85^23.85
6	Boston River	4	1	1	2	5	6	-7	4	1.17^0.06	0.66	23.99^-18.99	31.60^25.60
7	Cerro	4	1	0	3	2	7	-21	3	0.50^-0.18	0.69	25.51^-23.51	27.59^20.59
8	Defensor Sporting	4	0	2	2	2	5	-1	2	0.50^-0.71	0.66	27.93^-25.93	29.98^24.98
#	Team	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	PPG^Δ6	oPPG	xG^Δ	xGA^Δ

Group 2

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	PPG^Δ6	oPPG	xG^Δ	xGA^Δ
1	Deportivo Maldonado	5	3	2	0	12	5	15	11	2.33^0.33	0.60	28.62^-16.62	25.43^20.43
2	Nacional	5	3	1	1	5	5	5	10	2.17^0.57	0.62	30.15^-25.15	20.56^15.56
3	Wanderers	5	2	3	0	8	3	0	9	2.00^0.55	0.63	27.88^-19.88	28.56^25.56
4	Torque	5	3	0	2	10	9	7	9	2.00^0.40	0.62	29.40^-19.40	21.70^12.70
5	Albion	5	1	2	2	4	5	9	5	1.33^-0.32	0.62	24.76^-20.76	28.95^23.95
6	Juventud	5	1	1	3	7	11	-9	4	1.17^0.22	0.67	28.00^-21.00	29.60^18.60
7	Danubio	5	0	3	2	3	6	-7	3	0.50^-0.55	0.66	24.92^-21.92	27.60^21.60
8	Progreso	5	1	0	4	4	9	-16	3	0.50^-0.15	0.69	23.56^-19.56	29.19^20.19
#	Team	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	PPG^Δ6	oPPG	xG^Δ	xGA^Δ

Team stats


	(Avg)
10	Played	9
1	Avg goals for/against	0.78
0.9	Avg goals against/for	1.33
1.9	Avg total goals (GF+GA) (2.00)	2.11
70%	Scoring rate	89%
50%	Conceding rate	56%
50%	Clean sheet/Failed to score	11%
30%	Failed to score/Clean sheet	44%
20%	Scored in both halves (15.5%)	11%
40%	Scored first	22%
30%	Leading/Losing at half-time (15.0%)	0%
10%	Losing/Leading at half-time (38.5%)	67%
4.9	Avg corners for/against	4.11
5.5	Avg corners against/for	4.44
10.4	Avg total corners (F+A) (9.48)	8.55
4.9	Avg total cards (F+A) (5.51)	6.11
80%	GF+GA over 0.5 (90.0%)	100%
60%	GF+GA over 1.5 (63.5%)	67%
40%	GF+GA over 2.5 (36.5%)	33%
10%	GF+GA over 3.5 (10.5%)	11%
0%	GF+GA over 4.5 (0.0%)	0%
0%	GF+GA over 5.5 (0.0%)	0%
40%	Both teams scored (42.0%)	44%
70%	GF+GA over 0.5 at HT (74.0%)	78%
40%	GF+GA over 1.5 at HT (36.5%)	33%
0%	GF+GA over 2.5 at HT (5.5%)	11%
90%	Over 7.5 total corners (73.0%)	56%
70%	Over 8.5 total corners (57.0%)	44%
50%	Over 9.5 total corners (47.0%)	44%
40%	Over 10.5 total corners (31.0%)	22%
30%	Over 11.5 total corners (20.5%)	11%
30%	Over 12.5 total corners (15.0%)	0%
20%	Over 13.5 total corners (10.0%)	0%

Streaks


Home (Overall)		Away (Overall)
0 (0)	Consecutive wins	1 (0)
2 (1)	Consecutive draws	0 (0)
0 (0)	Consecutive defeats	0 (1)
2 (1)	No win	0 (1)
0 (0)	No draw	5 (10)
4 (5)	No defeat	1 (0)
1(1)	1 goal scored or more	0(0)
0(0)	1 goal conceded or more	7(14)
0(0)	No goal scored	1(1)
2(2)	No goal conceded	0(0)
0(0)	Match total goals over 2.5	0(0)
5(2)	Match total goals under 2.5	1(1)
1(1)	2 goals scored or more	0(0)
0(0)	2 goals conceded or more	1(2)

Opening goals



4/10 (40%)	Scored first, home/away	2/9 (22%)
9/19 (47%)	Scored first, overall	4/19 (21%)

Timeline analysis

min

Data source15 matches42 goals

Overall

Goals before

100%

Goals after

Avg goals before

1.4

Exp goals after

Goals before

100%

Goals after

Avg goals before

2.8

Exp goals after

Goals before

100%

Goals after

Avg goals before

1.4

Exp goals after